You want to launch a prediction market in an African country. You cannot find out whether it is legal. That is not your research failing. In most of Africa, nobody has decided yet.
This page tracks the markets that have decided, and what they charge. We update it as regulators move.
Why this is so hard to answer
There is no African register of prediction market rules. Each regulator is working it out alone, and most have said nothing in public.
Silence is the trap. An operator reads it as permission. A regulator reads it as an unlicensed operator who should have asked.
Meanwhile the product is already live. Offshore platforms accept African users today, settle in crypto, and hold no local licence anywhere on the continent.
Liberia: licensed, and priced
Liberia is the clearest market on the continent. The National Lottery Authority created a dedicated licence under Resolution No. 005 of 2026.
- Licence fee: US$80,000.
- Minimum paid-up capital: US$500,000.
- Banned markets: deaths, criminal activity, Liberian elections.
Operators must publish market rules, set exposure limits and name their outcome verification sources. Full detail is in our report on the Liberia prediction market licence.
Kenya: gambling, but no licence yet
Kenya's Gambling Regulatory Authority has ruled that prediction markets are gambling. Director general Peter Karimi put it plainly. Predicting a future outcome requires no skill.
The licence category is planned under the Gambling Control Act 2025. No fee, requirement or date has been published.
So the activity is classified but not licensable. You cannot apply yet, and you cannot lawfully operate while you wait. See our coverage of the Kenyan prediction market licence.
Everywhere else: undecided
As of 31 October 2026 we have found no other African regulator that has published a position on prediction markets.
Undecided does not mean permitted. Most African gaming laws define gambling as staking money on an uncertain event. A prediction contract fits that definition without anyone needing to name it.
What to do instead of guessing
Three steps work in any African market:
- Assume it is gambling. Build for licensing, age checks, advertising limits and transaction reporting from day one.
- Ask the regulator in writing. A dated written query is worth more than a lawyer's opinion when enforcement arrives.
- Watch the payment rail. Mobile money and bank access is where African regulators enforce first, long before they reach your platform.
If you are weighing the underlying question, we set out both sides in are prediction markets gambling.
Frequently asked questions
Are prediction markets legal in Africa?
Only Liberia has issued a licence framework. Kenya treats them as gambling but has no licence available. Every other market is undecided.
Which African country licenses prediction markets?
Liberia, under Resolution No. 005 of 2026 from the National Lottery Authority.
How much does a prediction market licence cost in Africa?
Liberia charges US$80,000, plus US$500,000 in paid-up capital. No other African regulator has published a price.
Can I operate while a country decides?
It is a real risk. Most African gaming laws already cover staking money on an uncertain event, whether or not the regulator has named the product.
Are election markets allowed in Africa?
Liberia bans markets on its own elections. Treat election contracts as the most politically sensitive product in the category.
Last reviewed 31 October 2026. Liberian licence terms as reported by AfriGaming Bulletin.
