Kenya's Gambling Regulatory Authority (GRA) intends to create a separate licence category for prediction markets, the platforms that let people buy and sell contracts on future events such as election results, sports outcomes and economic figures.
The significance is in the classification, not the paperwork. The GRA's position is that these platforms are gambling, and that settles which law applies to them in Kenya.
What the regulator actually said
GRA director general Peter Karimi set out the reasoning in an interview with Business Daily published on 18 October 2026.
"The interpretation of the GRA is that gambling involves primarily games of chance and prediction by definition is about outcomes that are in the future, and therefore no skill is required," he said.
That is a deliberately broad reading. Prediction-market operators elsewhere have argued the opposite, framing their contracts as financial instruments closer to derivatives than to a bet. Kenya is signalling it does not accept that framing.
Where the legal power comes from
The Gambling Control Act 2025 names licences for online bookmakers, online lotteries and online casinos. It also allows further categories to be specified through regulations, and that is the route a prediction-market licence would take.
So the GRA does not need new primary legislation. It needs regulations, which is a considerably faster path.
What has not been decided
Quite a lot. The regulator has not published an implementation date, application requirements, fees or capital thresholds. The GRA has opened its 2026-2027 licensing period and says several companies have already approached it about the proposed category, but there is no published framework for them to apply under yet.
Karimi also flagged two harder problems. The first is cryptocurrency: some platforms onboard users and pay withdrawals in crypto, which sits awkwardly with existing rules on payment controls. The second is cross-border access, where a platform may be formally restricted to one jurisdiction while remaining reachable from Kenya.
Kenya's existing online gambling rules already cover payment controls, age verification, advertising and regulatory access to transaction data. Applying all four to a crypto-settled, offshore-hosted platform is the real test.
People are already trading
Business Daily reported on 18 October that Kenyan users are already active on 5050 Markets, EvenMarket and Spreadhit, none of which hold a Kenyan licence.
This is the familiar sequence in African online gambling: the product arrives, usage builds, and the licence category is written afterwards. The question for the GRA is whether a licence makes the unlicensed platforms apply, or simply pushes Kenyan users further into services that ignore it.
Frequently asked questions
Are prediction markets legal in Kenya?
There is no prediction-market licence in Kenya yet, so no platform can be licensed for it today. The GRA treats the activity as gambling, which means an unlicensed operator offering it to Kenyans is operating outside the Gambling Control Act 2025.
Does the GRA consider prediction markets gambling?
Yes. Its stated interpretation is that predicting a future outcome involves no skill, which places it within gambling rather than trading or investment.
When will the licence be available?
No date has been published. The GRA has said the category is planned but has not released requirements or a timeline.
Which law would the licence come under?
The Gambling Control Act 2025, which allows the regulator to specify additional licence categories through regulations rather than new legislation.
