Liberia has become the first African market to put a price on a prediction market licence. The fee is US$80,000. Applicants must also hold US$500,000 in paid-up capital.
The rules sit in Resolution No. 005 of 2026, issued by the National Lottery Authority. They treat prediction markets as a regulated gambling activity in their own right.
What the licence covers
Approved operators may offer event-based contracts tied to future events with verifiable outcomes. The NLA has deliberately separated this from conventional sports betting. A sportsbook licence does not cover it.
You need either a specific NLA licence or a board-approved partnership. There is no third route.
What you cannot offer
Three categories are banned outright:
- Markets on deaths.
- Markets on criminal activity.
- Markets on Liberian election outcomes.
That last one matters. Election contracts are the product prediction markets are best known for. Liberia has closed that door at home. The rest of the category stays open.
The compliance load
Licensed operators carry a long list of duties. The NLA requires them to:
- Publish their market rules.
- Set exposure limits.
- Name the sources used to verify each outcome.
- Protect customer funds.
- Guard against market manipulation and money laundering.
Naming your verification source is the clause worth reading twice. It forces an operator to say in advance how a market settles. Most disputes in this product start exactly there.
Partnerships are in scope too
The framework also covers commercial deals. These span prediction markets, lottery products, instant-win games, keno and a proposed national online lottery platform.
Permitted structures include joint ventures, concessions, technical service arrangements and platform licensing. Major deals need board approval or ratification.
Partners and significant beneficial owners face suitability checks. They must disclose politically exposed persons. Related-party transactions involving NLA officials are restricted.
Why this matters beyond Liberia
Kenya's Gambling Regulatory Authority has said it will create a prediction market licence. It has published no fee, no capital threshold and no date.
Liberia has published all three. For an operator choosing where to launch first, that gap is the whole decision. You can price a Liberian application today. You cannot price a Kenyan one.
Both regulators reached the same conclusion on the underlying question. If you are still weighing it, we set out the arguments in are prediction markets gambling.
Liberia is a small market. But it has just written the template other African regulators will read.
Frequently asked questions
How much does a prediction market licence cost in Liberia?
US$80,000. Applicants must also show US$500,000 in minimum paid-up capital.
Which law governs prediction markets in Liberia?
Resolution No. 005 of 2026, issued by the National Lottery Authority.
Can I run election markets in Liberia?
Not on Liberian elections. Markets on deaths and criminal activity are also prohibited.
Does a sports betting licence cover prediction markets in Liberia?
No. The NLA created a separate category. You need its own licence or a board-approved partnership.
Is Liberia the first African country to license prediction markets?
It is the first to publish a fee and a capital requirement. Kenya has announced a licence but released no terms.
Source: the Resolution No. 005 of 2026 details were first reported by AfriGaming Bulletin.
